Vantage Point North

  There are plenty of hot takes and rumors flying around about an impending Russian collapse or coup to oust Putin. Despite every imaginable indicator looking dire, Russia is never as weak as it looks, just ask the Wehrmacht veterans freezing their balls outside of Moscow in '41.  And it isn’t as powerful as the military manpower figures might suggest. So don’t be surprised if the old man in the bunker remains in power for the coming years. Assuming Ukraine doesn’t suddenly quit fighting (They won’t, just ask the Azov soldiers), there are three possible avenues for change for the Russian Federation. War ends with Putin in power. Palace coup by the oligarchs and top security officials. Popular uprising, with at least passive support from the army. Russia reaching a peace deal with Ukraine is unlikely, but if one is reached, the following return to non war economy and the mass release of contract soldiers from the army will cause unemployment to soar and the economic impacts of ...

As the war in Ukraine drags into its fifth year, one ugly truth stands out: Russia will not stop unless it is forced to stop.  Exercise Lively Sentry 25 that focuses on fighting the Russian army in a high intensity war (credit: FDF)  The Kremlin’s propaganda machine, from Pravda to milbloggers, continues to paint a picture of strength, but the reality on the ground tells a different story. Russia is bleeding resources, manpower, and legitimacy. Yet, despite this, Western voices still whisper about “peace deals” and “compromise.” That is not diplomacy; it is appeasement. Despite the Russian propaganda claiming otherwise, Ukrainian troops are still fighting hard in Pokrovsk. Russia is capable of expanding its armed forces despite the losses, but in the short term the quality of the troops is appalling. This is an advantage for the west, but it will turn into a liability if not capitalized quickly enough. Sanctions: From Symbolism to Systemic Pressure Sanctions do work, but only ...

Chinese Aircraft Carrier Liaoning (Photo: Russian propagandists) Written by quest author  Henri Hautamäki For the past few days, there has been a lot of media attention in Finland towards two giant pandas, which were airlifted from China and brought to the Ähtäri zoo in the central part of the country, following a deal in which they were loaned there for fifteen years. During the discussion rising from this “news spectacle”, a friend of mine decided to write in her blog about these animals, both from the perspective of animal rights, and the panda-deal’s political ramifications. You see, pandas have been rather important for the People’s Republic of China, namely as tools of their foreign policy and public image. Considering that many of the recent Chinese activities globally are rather less cute than their precious pandas, I decided to write a little bit about what they have been up to, for those who are not aware of it. PLZ-10 Self Propelled Howitzers (Photo: PLA) ...

A Finnish energy company Fortum has been negotiating with the German E.ON to buy a German energy company called Uniper. The deal has been controversial in Finland as it would include a large number of coal fired power plants that do not fit the Fortum’s strategy of becoming a sustainable and green energy producer. As 50,8 % of Fortum is owned by the Finnish government, the deal has an obvious political angle. (Photo: Nord Stream) The most disturbing aspect of the deal is that Uniper owns a 950 Million € share of the Russo-German gas pipeline project Nord Stream 2 . The Finnish minister responsible for directing the state owned companies is the Center Party’s Mika Lintilä. He stated that he didn’t have any information about the Uniper’s share of the gas pipeline. He also stated that the Finnish government would not veto the deal even if it would link Finland to the controversial pipeline and Russian geopolitical interests. Finland, unlike the Baltic States and Sweden,...