Can Russia change?

 There are plenty of hot takes and rumors flying around about an impending Russian collapse or coup to oust Putin.

Despite every imaginable indicator looking dire, Russia is never as weak as it looks, just ask the Wehrmacht veterans freezing their balls outside of Moscow in '41.  And it isn’t as powerful as the military manpower figures might suggest. So don’t be surprised if the old man in the bunker remains in power for the coming years.

Assuming Ukraine doesn’t suddenly quit fighting (They won’t, just ask the Azov soldiers), there are three possible avenues for change for the Russian Federation.

• War ends with Putin in power.

• Palace coup by the oligarchs and top security officials.

• Popular uprising, with at least passive support from the army.

Russia reaching a peace deal with Ukraine is unlikely, but if one is reached, the following return to non war economy and the mass release of contract soldiers from the army will cause unemployment to soar and the economic impacts of the war will hit all rungs of the Russian society. The flammable cocktail of unemployed, traumatized and substance dependent men, who have been desensitized to extreme violence won’t be pretty when (not if) it smashes to the Kremlin wall.

Will the remaining military turn their guns on the veterans? In most countries I would assume some loyalty remains even in that situation, but with the rampant corruption and intra service violence in the Russian military, I really don’t know.

In this situation Putin only has two viable options, either to develop a serious enough existential threat to deploy the troops against, in order to prevent them from returning to civilian society as free men. The other option is to ramp up the repression and possibly recreate the Gulag system for the now unnecessary soldiers. This is initially very expensive and will require that the non-army security services remain operational and loyal to Putin.

A coup in Russia can come from multiple bases of power. Someone from the administration's inner circle can take over the whole system, but he or she immediately inherits all of the same problems Putin now has. The only extra option it provides to the Russian leadership is to be able to place the blame on Putin, so that the economic and political sanctions placed by the west would be lifted. Increased economic activity would give the administration a breathing moment, but there is no indication that anyone in the administration is truly willing to sacrifice the idea of the Russian Empire and the power it deserves. 

There would be extreme pressure from the business elite to immediately open up the Russian markets to European companies, but allowing this would probably be the worst mistake Europe has done, since forcing Germany to abandon the treaty of Brest-Litovsk in 1918. Russia would do exactly the same thing Iran did, during the Nuclear deal, re-arm and reorganize to continue its power projection.

A genuine popular uprising during the war is the most unlikely scenario. Most of the Russian opposition isn’t prepared to take responsibility for the lost war. They are also very reluctant to openly oppose Russian imperialism, especially with the masses of betrayed soldiers waiting to get home.

The only viable anti-imperial opposition by Russians is currently serving in the Ukrainian Army and too busy fighting their compatriots with impressive ferocity.

So what is the likely scenario? More of the same with extra sauce of bitterness.

The Russian Imperial project is working with a very narrow window of opportunity. The hard backstop is created by the steepening decline of the ethnic Russian population within the federation. The war in Ukraine has been used to cull some minorities to keep the relative decline less obvious, but the overall population won't be able to support an offensive war much longer. The war in Ukraine has to eventually wind down, probably not a proper peace, but to a limited ceasefire. In order to regain its legitimacy as the provider of the “Russian Greatness”, the Putinist Administration would need to provide the population with a quick and impactful victory somewhere, anywhere.

Despite the crippling losses Russia has suffered in Ukraine, they have managed to rebuild some parts of their army with new modern equipment and relatively well trained troops. This, at least an Army sized, unit is still capable of causing short term problems in many geographically limited areas.

All of these scenarios have the possible outcome of devolving into a civil war along the many fractures in the Russian society: Social, Political, Geographic and most likely of them ethnic.

The Russian threat to its neighbors will not stop if Putin dies or gets ousted.

The Russian threat will not stop if the war in Ukraine pauses or ends.

Instead of waiting for Russia to change, the West must exploit Russia’s weaknesses ruthlessly and everywhere they appear. From demoralizing the population, hampering their economy, inciting violence and riots and when the time comes: Using force to rip the Russian Federation into pieces. 

Open the gates of the prison of nations for good.