Vantage Point North

  There are plenty of hot takes and rumors flying around about an impending Russian collapse or coup to oust Putin. Despite every imaginable indicator looking dire, Russia is never as weak as it looks, just ask the Wehrmacht veterans freezing their balls outside of Moscow in '41.  And it isn’t as powerful as the military manpower figures might suggest. So don’t be surprised if the old man in the bunker remains in power for the coming years. Assuming Ukraine doesn’t suddenly quit fighting (They won’t, just ask the Azov soldiers), there are three possible avenues for change for the Russian Federation. War ends with Putin in power. Palace coup by the oligarchs and top security officials. Popular uprising, with at least passive support from the army. Russia reaching a peace deal with Ukraine is unlikely, but if one is reached, the following return to non war economy and the mass release of contract soldiers from the army will cause unemployment to soar and the economic impacts of ...