Russian response to Finnish NATO-membership

Turkish parliament ratified the Finnish NATO-membership yesterday. Before the process began, many pundits, myself included, expected Russia to try to interfere with the process.

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The wide scale destruction of the Russian army in Ukraine is an obvious reason that military force hasn't been used to tie down Finland into a frozen conflict to prevent its ascension to the alliance. In the current situation an attack against Finland would severely risk Finland seizing a buffer zone from Russia as Russia is unable to mass the required forces to overmatch the 300 000 men Finnish war time army.

But the Russian commitment in to Ukraine doesn't explain the silence in the political and unconventional fields. Russia still has its intelligence services and illegal operatives.

It seems that the Russian assessment of Finland is quite realistic at the moment. The sentiment within Finland is strongly against Russia and the Finnish public vocally stands in support of Ukraine.

Any Russian threats or destabilizing actions would only push the public opinion in Finland more towards the west and it could also fuel increased support to Ukraine. Russia doesn't really have any soft power left in Finland beyond its existing influence agents and they have been thoroughly discredited during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The war has plummeted the Finnish opinions on Russia to the lowest point since 1944, when Finland stopped the invasion of the Red Army. No promise of friendship or co-operation would be treated seriously.

Russia has managed to not only paint itself to a corner, but also to invite NATO to within 250km of Saint Petersburg and provide the alliance with 900 000 new trained soldiers. And these soldiers are among the most willing to fight within the alliance.

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