Skip to main content

The Hammer and the Sickle - Potential Russian Pincer-Offensive

For the past weeks the social media has been filled with sightings of Russian troops moving towards the regions bordering Ukraine. The buildup was initially called an exercise, but in the most recent press releases Kremlin has been rather clear that the troops have been deployed there as an operational deployment, if Russia feels a need to act upon any real or imaginary escalation in Donbass. The troops will stay in the region as long as President Putin sees it necessary.

Russia Serna-Class landing crafts of the Caspian flotilla


The initial buildup was focused on occupied Crimea that has so far received an additional VDV airborne regiment, multiple mechanized battalion tactical groups and heavy artillery units equipped with at least the enormous 240mm 2S4 Tulpan mortars. 

Additional trains and convoys have been spotted in Rostov, Krasnodar and Voronezh regions. The Russian controlled Belarusian military has also been alerted and multiple, very Russian looking units are operating in the southern part of the country. Unlike the typical training deployments, these convoys have had a larger portion of supply vehicles, including fuel tankers. The main battle tanks, predominantly T-72B3:s deployed have had their external fuel tanks fitted and they more frequently than normally carry dozer blades and mine plows.

Russian T-72B3 with external fuel tanks and a dozer blade


The troops have been gathered all the way from the Central Military Districts Siberian units and some trains are on the way from Arkhangelsk and Murmansk in the Arctic. In addition to the troops deploying close to Ukraine, the Russian ICBM TELs carrying the intercontinental nuclear missiles have been dispersed to the vast Siberian taiga to provide a nuclear umbrella for any upcoming operations.

One surprising location where at least two Russian battalions have been spotted is the port city of Yeisk in Krasnodar oblast. The city is located on the southern shore of the Azov Sea, right across the Ukrainian city of Mariupol.




On 8th of April the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that over ten vessels of the Caspian fleet would transit from the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea. The Volga-Don canal route takes this flotilla of gunboats, landing crafts and corvettes directly into the Azov Sea, less than a 100km form the Yeisk docks, that are well suited to loading all sorts of watercraft. The flotilla would be able to cross the 50 km stretch of water to Mariupol in less than an hour, bypassing the heavily fortified Ukrainian defense lines east of the city.

Russian beachhead on the northern shore of the Azov Sea would simultaneously threaten the rear of both the defenders of the Mariupol sector and the troops guarding the narrow approaches from Crimea to the Ukrainian mainland.

Another concentration of Russian reinforcements has been spotted building a temporary base of operations in the Voronetzh oblast, roughly 180 km from the Ukrainian border. The base has at least 600 vehicles with heavy artillery and electronic warfare support. Together with the forces of and in Belarus, this multi-brigade force threatens to bypass the Ukrainian forces facing off with the Russian forces already in Donbass. It looks like the Russian high command is setting up a pincer move that would force the well entrenched Ukrainian defenders to react and move. 

The maneuver warfare this would result in, is something that the Russian forces have trained a lot in the recent years and their new command and communications infrastructure allows a tight integration of different components of their force, while the extensive electronic warfare capabilities could severely hamper the Ukrainian response. 

If successful the pincer movement would either force the Ukrainian army surrounding the Russian control areas in Donbass into full retreat towards west or to their complete destruction. It would hardly be the first massive encirclement operation in the Ukrainian steppes.



Popular posts from this blog

Quick guide to identifying the Russian tanks Part 1: Updated Dec. 2021

  As most of the western nations have reduced their inventories to a few or mostly one type of main battle tank model in their active inventories, the myriad of tank platforms and distinct versions employed by the Russian armed forces may feel overwhelming. Here is a quick guide to identifying Russian MBTs. When you come across an image (or the actual thing), follow the steps to identify it properly. Updated 15.12.2021: T-90 modifications Family of the tank Russian Armed Forces currently operates, or at least storage, the following tank platforms/families: -            T-55 (<2000 in storage) -            T-62 (2000 in storage) -            T-64 (2000 in storage) -            T-72 (2000 active duty, 8000 in storage) -            T-80 (2000 active duty, 5000 in storage) -            T-90 (350 active duty, 600  in storage) -            T-14 (20 in field testing) So how can you identify what type of a tank are you looking at? There are two features that can be used to distinguishing th

The Russian ”Tank Circus”

The Russian media has published several articles about the latest round of live fire drills by the Russian tank forces. The first brief mentions caught my attention as they described a new tank tactic based on the experiences of the Russian expeditionary force in Syria.  T-72B1 at Pogonovo (Photo: © RIA Novosti / Andrey Stanavov) The details about the new tactic were scarce but there were mentions of continuous movement and a steady barrage of main gun fire. On 4th of July, the RIA published an in depth article about the 20th combined Arms Army’s field training of the new tactics (Translated to English by Sputnik ) The “Tank Carousel” is simply a drill in which a tanks of a formation, be it a platoon or a company, move around a set perimeter firing the from vantage points or openings in a berm and then move off to safety while another one moves in to the same spot to fire.  This does allow the unit to maintain sustained 125 mm tank gun fire at a target area. Another

Russian Airborne Forces To Go Wheeled

The light weight tracked IFV:s of the BMD-series have been the mainstay of the Russian airborne forces, the VDV, for decades. Several new BMD-variants are currently under development. But the vehicle that is going to be  introduced  to service first is breaking the pattern.  K-4386 Typhoon-VDV (Photo: Vitaly V, Kuzmin) The K-4386 Typhoon-VDV is a wheeled 4x4 armored car, that can be armed with a variety of weapon systems. The base model is a formidable IFV that will have a remote-controlled turret with a 30 mm 2A42 automatic cannon and a coaxial 7.62mm PKT machine gun. But what really sets the VDV variant apart from most of the other MRAP:s is its ability to be parachuted from Russian transport aircraft. Drivers station of the  K-4386 Typhoon-VDV (photo: Nikita Grigoriev, Mil.Today)  The Typhoon “ family ” of Russian mine resistant vehicles has been adopted by the various military branches and security services in Russia. The vehicles are manufactured by both KamAZ and