The Finnish
Security and Intelligence Service SUPO was transformed into a full-blown
intelligence agency when the new intelligence laws for military and civilian
intelligence were passed this summer. In the new role SUPO can now engage in
activities like network traffic intelligence and intelligence operations abroad.
While the new powers are not yet fully utilized, SUPO's situational awareness
should have improved a lot in the recent months.
On December
5, 2019 SUPO published its annual assessment of the Finland’s security
situation. It splits the Finnish security environment into four areas:
- Foreign
intelligence activity targeting Finland and Finns
- Cyber
espionage
- Threat
of terrorism in Finland
- Hybrid
threats
SUPO openly
states that the most active intelligence agencies operating in Finland are
Russian and Chinese. There are dozens of intelligence operatives permanently
stationed in Finland. The focus of these agencies are:
- Finding
influence vectors within the Finnish society
- Anticipating strategic decisions made by Finland
- Finnish relations with EU, NATO and individual countries
- Finnish critical infrastructure
- Cybersecurity
measures and systems
- Industrial
espionage on hi-tech companies
The report
also mentions that several unnamed countries are conducting intelligence and coercion
operations against their citizens living in Finland. It’s widely known that at
least Turkey and Iran are trying to intimidate its expats into following regime
policies, even if the countries are not mentioned in the report. Report expects
the foreign intelligence activity within Finland to remain on the high level or
even increase.
There is also an increased amount of cyber espionage and sabotage operations detected. While direct damages have been minimal, it’s expected that these operations continue to proliferate and SUPO is putting considerable amount of resources into combating them.
The threat
of terrorism in Finland remains elevated. The biggest threats are lone wolves
following extremist Islamist ideologies and naturally the returning ISIS jihadists,
whose return cannot be blocked under the current legislation. The report doesn’t
state any other terrorist threats besides the jihadists.
Hybrid influencing
and operations are mentioned rather vaguely, but its clear that there is significant
number of influencing operations going on. Some target the political leadership
and economic decision makers. The spectrum of operations is broadening and
while the operations are low intensity and long term in nature, there is a real
possibility of rapidly ramping them up if needed, with possibly crippling results.
The overall
tone of the short report is that Finland is under significant pressure, but not
directly attacked, yet. The main threat to Finnish national security is Russia,
while China and the Jihadists pose more limited threats to certain areas of the
society.
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