Skip to main content

Is the Finnish security environment deteriorating?

Two rather ominous news broke form Russia on7.8.2019. Russian Northern Fleet has deployed Bal anti-ship missiles to Keskisaarento (полуостров Средний).These missiles are within striking range from the most important Norwegian radar station at Vardo. They also have the capability to interdict all shipping to the Kirkenes habour.

Bal Anti-ship missile launherKeskustelu


Russia has also established a new helicopter / forward base to Gogland island (Suursaari) on the Gulf of Finland. This base allows the Russian armed forces to rapidly airlift their SOF units to either the Finnish or Estonian territory. The base also allows Russia to exert increasing control over the waters of the gulf.Its noteworthy that both of these territories belonged to Finland before the start of the World War Two. From the Finnish point of view the message is clear, Russia is staging forces to the old Finnish soil.

Russian SOF fast roping from a Mi-8 helicopter


On the western side of the border, the usual calm of the Finnish defense discussion is experiencing a rare storm. While there have always been underlying differences between the parties and even more so between the fractions within the parties, the public discussion has rarely seen direct confrontations over the defense matters.



Following the parliamentary election this spring the Finnish government has changed, after four years of center right rule the new government was formed by the leftist parties, together with the center party. The center party was instrumental in the Cold War era finlandization that saw USSR exerting considerable amount of control over the Finnish politics. The leading Social Democrat party's foreign policy line has long been in the hands of a few old anti-NATO diehards, like Erkki Tuomioja.

Prime minister Antti Rinne a social democrat trade unionist, with no experience in defense or foreign policy 

The new Prime Minister Antti Rinne launched a rather open and public attack towards the recently chosen Finnish Chief of Defense General Timo Kivinen. PM Rinne has stated that the new ChoD should remember his place and shouldn’t step into the public discussion unless to support the government line.



The Finnish Chief of Defense Kivinen is known as a no-nonsense officer. He is a Ranger trained infantry officer who commanded the Finnish paratroopers and helped to create the present day Finnish Special Forces.



It’s very worrying that the Prime minister Rinne is applying this much pressure towards the new Chief, especially as the Commander in Chief of the Finnish Defense Forces is the President Sauli Niinistö, not the Prime minister Rinne.


It's also noteworthy, that Finland is currently holding the presidency of the council of the European Union. So it would be particularly important for the Finnish leadership to present a unified front towards Russia.




How much power do the anti-western and pro-Russian fractions in the government parties actually wield?



Is Finland going stay on its present course towards deeper integration with USA, UK and Sweden?



Will Russia use the recent confusion to test the new Finnish government?



How will the flaring hot spots and problems with the creation of the European naval operation for the Strait of Hormuz effect the Finland’s perceived ability to get help?
Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Fiery Hell in 1944: Soviet offensive against Finland

It has been 75 years since 1944 and memorial events for the various decisive battles are held across the world. One of the largest and most grueling battles was the Soviet summer offensive against Finland. Here is a short article about this less known campaign with lots of pictures to and a tiny bit of analysis. 

Karelian Isthmus in 8th of June 1944
The World War two had raged on for four years and the most pivotal moments of it had gone. German army was falling back on all fronts, Allied forces had landed to the shores of Normandy and the Soviet forces had dealt decisive blows to the German war machine.
While all this information was available at the headquarters of the Finnish army in Mikkeli, the Finnish army had grown complacent after spending the past two years in a stagnated trench warfare in the southern part of the frontline. The northern part of the front-lines had remained active, but the guerrilla warfare fought in the endless forests of the far north was worlds apart from the…
3 comments
Read more

Quick guide to identifying the Russian tanks Part 1: main platforms and T-72 variants

As most of the western nations have reduced their inventories to a few or mostly one type of main battle tank model in their active inventories, the myriad of tank platforms and distinct versions employed by the Russian armed forces may feel overwhelming. Here is a quick guide to identifying Russian MBTs. When you come across an image (or the actual thing), follow the steps to identify it properly.



Family of the tankRussian Armed Forces currently operates, or at least storage, the following tank platforms/families: -T-55 (<2000 in storage) -T-62 (2000 in storage) -T-64 (2000 in storage) -T-72 (2000 active duty, 8000 in storage) -T-80 (2000 active duty, 5000 in storage) -T-90 (350 active duty, 600 in storage) -T-14 (20 in field testing)
So how can you identify what type of a tank are you looking at?
There are two features that can be used to distinguishing the tank families: The roadwheel placement and the exhaust ports. The older and smaller T-55 and T-62 have five roadwheels in their suspe…
14 comments
Read more

T-90M ”Breakthrough” the Armata Russia has to live with

The T-14 Armata was supposedly going to be the next main combat vehicle platform that would replace the dozen or so main battle tank versions currently in the Russian service. The development and testing process of the T-14 has been difficult and the manufacturer Uralvagonzavod will deliver the first five pre-production vehicles in the first half of 2020. It’s quite a far cry from the originally planned production run of 2300 Armata’s by the end of 2020.

First newly-built T-90M tanks with redesigned turrets and engines will be delivered for state tests alongside the initial batch of T-14’s. The T-90M, that shouldn’t be confused with the export version upgrade package T-90MS, is actually very capable package with significantly less complicated problems than the more radical T-14.


The T-90M offers the same firepower and mobility with most likely slightly superior optics and situational awareness compared to the Armata. With the conventional layout, many of the camera, display and stabili…
2 comments
Read more