Skip to main content

Next stop: Balkan

Next stop: Balkan

Russia has been busy lately. Area denial / Anti Access bubbles are popping up from Syria to the Arctic. Snap drills are mobilizing hundreds of thousands of soldiers in a moment’s notice. Brigades and entire divisions are relocating across the vast nation in days. Russia keeps moving its assets with rapid and unannounced moves. While most of these drills, relocation's and exercises have been just what they look like. Russia has been steadily improving its strategic position along its western border.
Russian Speznatz
Russia is also sending a clear message to the west. “We can go to war at any moment.” A prime example of this signaling was the combined arms invasion of Norway, which was simulated in mid-October. Exercise included thousands of marines and soldiers, a missile brigade and the aircraft-carrier squadron that blocked the route for NATO: s reinforcements. Surprisingly the squadrons most potent platform isn’t the carrier. The Kirov-class battlecruiser Pjotr Velikiy is the largest surface combatant commissioned today and it’s very potent long range anti-aircraft and anti-ship weaponry.
Kirov-class Battlecruiser
The AD/A2 bases serve a similar purpose as the carrier squadron did in the case of Norway. They compose of a triad of long range missile systems: Ballistic Iskander-M, Anti-aircraft S-400 and the anti-ship Bastion. The triad allows Russian military to block or at least hinder hostile forces. Triad is supplemented by shorter range systems such as Bal and Pantsir that provide protection to the far reaching weapons on mobile launchers. In some regions naval assets, such as Cruise missile carrying Buyan-M corvettes, supplement the land based components. These missile systems are necessary as Russian Air-Force is unable to operate in hostile airspace defended with modern SAM or fighters.
As everyone knows, Russia established full control over the Crimean peninsula. This allowed Kremlin to fortify the Sevastopol unchecked and all parts of the AD/A2 triad are present with addition of significant motorized infantry and aviation assets. Russia met very little opposition in Crimea and Ukraine hasn’t been able to even consider retaking the area as it’s fully engaged with the Russian forces masquerading as separatists in Donbass.
5P85TE2 S-400 launcher
How does Balkan fit into this picture?
While the world’s attention has been focused to Syria and Ukraine, several faint signals have emerged from the Balkans. Several Russian high level politicians, starting from President Putin, have recently visited the pro-Russian governments and organizations in the region. Tensions have been mounting in several hot spots. Several attempts by foreign actors were aimed to destabilize Macedonian elections. A referendum in the Republika Sprska, the Serbian enclave in Bosnia, has sparked very harsh rhetoric from the other parts of the Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Russian air-force and Special Forces have conducted several combat drills with the Serbian army this year. Some of the training exercises have included unconventional scenarios and “peacekeeping” styled interventions.
In September a meeting of the Cossacks living in the Balkans was held at the Kotor, Montenegro. Meeting was the founding point of the “Balkan Cossack Army”. Organization is driving to “Unite the orthodox world”. It’s styled with a paramilitary structure and boasts having 26 chapters, sized around 50 “Cossacks”. Building of paramilitary and extremist forces abroad is an age old tactic. The wounds between ethnic groups in the region are still deep and there is no shortage of angry young men looking for a purpose. This has been painfully illustrated by the sheer number of Bosnian Muslims that have joined the global jihad.
Balkan “Cossack” Army
Russia is clearly preparing for a possible escalation of relations in the region. A spark into the powder keg and general mayhem would suit Moscow very well, especially if they would be “forced” to send in a peacekeeping force in to the Republika Sprska. Kremlin used the same ruse successfully in Georgia and Moldova. A peacekeeping force, for example a mechanized brigade, could then be expanded into an AD/A2 base by the usual excuses.
With long range missile capabilities in Moldova, Bosnia, Belarus, Crimea and Kaliningrad Russia could hinder any and all NATO operations in the Eastern Europe. With a missile base in the Baltic Sea, for example in Gotland or Åland the encirclement of the former Warsaw pact countries would be complete.
At the moment Russia has a strong strategic position. It can launch rapid military operations with significant heavy elements with a moment’s notice. While Russia is certainly not capable of winning a conventional all-out war with NATO, it can challenge the alliance in certain regions. Russian advantages are declining slowly. NATO is waking up, passive Obama administration is on the way out and Russian economy is in a deadly spiral. So if the Kremlin is going to leverage its military advantages, they will need to do so soon.
While Russia is preparing for a large scale war, it’s also evident that the Russia isn’t concerned about major nuclear war in the near future. If Russia was anticipating a nuclear exchange, it wouldn’t leave its Northern Fleets ballistic missile submarines undefended as it has now done.
Forecast for the winter is: Subversive action in the Balkans and across the continent, continuing war in the Ukraine and Syria and a possibility of a limited conventional war in Europe.

Comments

  1. I am glad you take pride in what you write. This makes you stand way out from many other writers that push poorly written contentfriv jogos online
    jogos online 2019
    friv jogos 4 school online

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Quick guide to identifying the Russian tanks Part 1: Updated Dec. 2021

  As most of the western nations have reduced their inventories to a few or mostly one type of main battle tank model in their active inventories, the myriad of tank platforms and distinct versions employed by the Russian armed forces may feel overwhelming. Here is a quick guide to identifying Russian MBTs. When you come across an image (or the actual thing), follow the steps to identify it properly. Updated 15.12.2021: T-90 modifications Family of the tank Russian Armed Forces currently operates, or at least storage, the following tank platforms/families: -            T-55 (<2000 in storage) -            T-62 (2000 in storage) -            T-64 (2000 in storage) -            T-72 (2000 active duty, 8000 in storage) -            T-80 (2000 active duty, 5000 in storage) -            T-90 (350 active duty, 600  in storage) -            T-14 (20 in field testing) So how can you identify what type of a tank are you looking at? There are two features that can be used to distinguishing th

The Russian ”Tank Circus”

The Russian media has published several articles about the latest round of live fire drills by the Russian tank forces. The first brief mentions caught my attention as they described a new tank tactic based on the experiences of the Russian expeditionary force in Syria.  T-72B1 at Pogonovo (Photo: © RIA Novosti / Andrey Stanavov) The details about the new tactic were scarce but there were mentions of continuous movement and a steady barrage of main gun fire. On 4th of July, the RIA published an in depth article about the 20th combined Arms Army’s field training of the new tactics (Translated to English by Sputnik ) The “Tank Carousel” is simply a drill in which a tanks of a formation, be it a platoon or a company, move around a set perimeter firing the from vantage points or openings in a berm and then move off to safety while another one moves in to the same spot to fire.  This does allow the unit to maintain sustained 125 mm tank gun fire at a target area. Another

Russian Airborne Forces To Go Wheeled

The light weight tracked IFV:s of the BMD-series have been the mainstay of the Russian airborne forces, the VDV, for decades. Several new BMD-variants are currently under development. But the vehicle that is going to be  introduced  to service first is breaking the pattern.  K-4386 Typhoon-VDV (Photo: Vitaly V, Kuzmin) The K-4386 Typhoon-VDV is a wheeled 4x4 armored car, that can be armed with a variety of weapon systems. The base model is a formidable IFV that will have a remote-controlled turret with a 30 mm 2A42 automatic cannon and a coaxial 7.62mm PKT machine gun. But what really sets the VDV variant apart from most of the other MRAP:s is its ability to be parachuted from Russian transport aircraft. Drivers station of the  K-4386 Typhoon-VDV (photo: Nikita Grigoriev, Mil.Today)  The Typhoon “ family ” of Russian mine resistant vehicles has been adopted by the various military branches and security services in Russia. The vehicles are manufactured by both KamAZ and