Skip to main content

Independent Kurdistan, born to die?


Kurdish Peshmerga
The autonomous Kurdistan Region votes enthusiastically for independence. A perfect world would welcome a new member into the family of nations, but the local powers in the Middle East are preparing to extinguish the flame of freedom before it even has a change to light up properly. Iraq, Turkey and Iran all strongly oppose the creation of a Kurdish state, as they fear that the Kurdish minorities within their borders would seek to follow the lead of the Kurds in Iraq.

While USA and many of the western countries are supportive to the Kurdish cause and have sent both arms and trainers to help the Kurdish Peshmerga’s to fight the Islamic State, it’s doubtful that they are willing to or even able to protect Kurdistan with either sufficient diplomatic pressure or military action.



The Iraqi parliament has ordered the government to seize all border crossings from Kurdistan to Iraq and to the neighboring countries. The Iraqi prime minister ordered the Iraqi security forces to move into the Kurdistan and the region inder government controll to “protect the citizens”.

It’s is very doubtful that the official Iraqi fores are able to secure the Iraqi Kurdistan from the approximately 150000 Peshmergas that have many battle hardened units in their ranks. The Iraqi Army was greatly struggling against ISIS forces in Mosul and in a campaign against the Kurdistan, they would have to operate without any American support.

Iraqi army taking selfies

Turkey has threatened to cut off all oil sales from an independent Kurdistan. And as they seem anticipate the problems with the Iraqi offensive against the Kurds. The Turkish military has also been instructed to move mechanized forces to the Iraqi border and begun conducting air raids against the Kurdistan Workers Party, PKK that operates in the Turkey-Iraq border zone and is designated as a terrorist organization. Iran has deployed it’s elite 65th NOHED Brigade to support the Turkish mechanized force. There are also significant Iran led and funded Shiite militias supporting the Iraqi forces.

Member of the 65th NOHED

With three directions blocked by the hostile military forces the newborn Kurdistan’s supply lines will be severed and the only open route leads to the somewhat friendly Kurdish SDF forces in Syria. While these forces have significant combat value, they are tied to fighting the ISIS and blocking the Syrian army backed by Russia. The western military forces in Iraq and Syria are hardly a deterrent to the combined Iraqi, Turkish, Iranian and Syrian forces that are backed by the Russian expeditionary force in Syria.


The Kurdistan may be born from a democratic and peaceful referendum, but it will most likely have to fight hard for it’s right to exists. Without significant help from the United States the outlook for the new state looks grim. 

On the other hand a direct military confrontation between Turkey and USA would spell the end of  the NATO as we know it. As I've predicted over a year ago and that could have even further reaching consequences than a major war in the Middle East.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Quick guide to identifying the Russian tanks Part 1: main platforms and T-72 variants

As most of the western nations have reduced their inventories to a few or mostly one type of main battle tank model in their active inventories, the myriad of tank platforms and distinct versions employed by the Russian armed forces may feel overwhelming. Here is a quick guide to identifying Russian MBTs. When you come across an image (or the actual thing), follow the steps to identify it properly.



Family of the tankRussian Armed Forces currently operates, or at least storage, the following tank platforms/families: -T-55 (<2000 in storage) -T-62 (2000 in storage) -T-64 (2000 in storage) -T-72 (2000 active duty, 8000 in storage) -T-80 (2000 active duty, 5000 in storage) -T-90 (350 active duty, 600 in storage) -T-14 (20 in field testing)
So how can you identify what type of a tank are you looking at?
There are two features that can be used to distinguishing the tank families: The roadwheel placement and the exhaust ports. The older and smaller T-55 and T-62 have five roadwheels in their suspe…

9000 Tons of Steel: Russian Tank Drills in the Urals

After a flurry of rather disinformative “Tank Carousel” news from Russia the latest reportage from the Russian armed force tank exercise is much more interesting. At the beginning of August the handily named 90th Guards Vitebsk-Novgorod twice Red Banner Tank Division held it’s first divisional sized combat and live fire exercise at Cherbakul in the Chelyabinsk region.
The 90th division, that is stationed in the Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk regions, was founded in 2016 and is one of the heaviest hitting Russian formations around. It has a similar structure as the 4th Kantemirovskaya Tank Division that is part of the 1st Guards Tank Army.
The 90th Tank Division consists of the following units: •Headquarters •6th Guards Lvov Tank Regiment  •80th Tank Regiment •239th Guards Tank Regiment •228th Motorized Rifle Regiment •400th Transylvania Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment  •Anti-Aircraft Regiment •30th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion •351st Separate Engineer Sapper Battalion •33rd Separa…

A Piece of our family history: the Battle of Petäjäsaari 1940.

As a celebration of the #Finland100 I decided to write about a small but personal piece of Finnish history. A few years ago my mother asked me to find out what exactly happened to her uncle Sulo, who had disappeared during the Second World War. She knew that it had happened at the end of the Winter War in 1940, but nothing else. She gave me his full name, rough time of birth and a copy of his last letter. In that letter he wrote that he had just arrived as fresh reinforcement to a new unit.



Armed with this information I started to dig some archives and uncovered the date of Sulo's demise, only three days after the last letter was dated. The same source revealed the unit he had served in and the place of his disappearance.
Another archive hosted the war diaries of the different Finnish military units, so I dug out the diary of the 6th company of the 35th infantry regiment, that  Sulo had served in. On the very day my great uncles last letter was dated, there is actually a mention …