Skip to main content

Independent Kurdistan, born to die?


Kurdish Peshmerga
The autonomous Kurdistan Region votes enthusiastically for independence. A perfect world would welcome a new member into the family of nations, but the local powers in the Middle East are preparing to extinguish the flame of freedom before it even has a change to light up properly. Iraq, Turkey and Iran all strongly oppose the creation of a Kurdish state, as they fear that the Kurdish minorities within their borders would seek to follow the lead of the Kurds in Iraq.

While USA and many of the western countries are supportive to the Kurdish cause and have sent both arms and trainers to help the Kurdish Peshmerga’s to fight the Islamic State, it’s doubtful that they are willing to or even able to protect Kurdistan with either sufficient diplomatic pressure or military action.



The Iraqi parliament has ordered the government to seize all border crossings from Kurdistan to Iraq and to the neighboring countries. The Iraqi prime minister ordered the Iraqi security forces to move into the Kurdistan and the region inder government controll to “protect the citizens”.

It’s is very doubtful that the official Iraqi fores are able to secure the Iraqi Kurdistan from the approximately 150000 Peshmergas that have many battle hardened units in their ranks. The Iraqi Army was greatly struggling against ISIS forces in Mosul and in a campaign against the Kurdistan, they would have to operate without any American support.

Iraqi army taking selfies

Turkey has threatened to cut off all oil sales from an independent Kurdistan. And as they seem anticipate the problems with the Iraqi offensive against the Kurds. The Turkish military has also been instructed to move mechanized forces to the Iraqi border and begun conducting air raids against the Kurdistan Workers Party, PKK that operates in the Turkey-Iraq border zone and is designated as a terrorist organization. Iran has deployed it’s elite 65th NOHED Brigade to support the Turkish mechanized force. There are also significant Iran led and funded Shiite militias supporting the Iraqi forces.

Member of the 65th NOHED

With three directions blocked by the hostile military forces the newborn Kurdistan’s supply lines will be severed and the only open route leads to the somewhat friendly Kurdish SDF forces in Syria. While these forces have significant combat value, they are tied to fighting the ISIS and blocking the Syrian army backed by Russia. The western military forces in Iraq and Syria are hardly a deterrent to the combined Iraqi, Turkish, Iranian and Syrian forces that are backed by the Russian expeditionary force in Syria.


The Kurdistan may be born from a democratic and peaceful referendum, but it will most likely have to fight hard for it’s right to exists. Without significant help from the United States the outlook for the new state looks grim. 

On the other hand a direct military confrontation between Turkey and USA would spell the end of  the NATO as we know it. As I've predicted over a year ago and that could have even further reaching consequences than a major war in the Middle East.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Russian Oktoberfest - the Activation of the entire Russian army

Even though the Zapad2017 drill, that rehearsed assault through the Baltics to relieve the Kaliningrad enclave, has ended, the Russian armed forces are not resting on their laurels. Today Russia announced that it will begin a control check that will include all military units in all of the military branches.

The control checks will be conducted in two phases. During the first phase of the tests over 300 active duty formations will be brought to combat readiness and tested by the inspectors. These checks will happen before the 15th of October. The checks will be held in 120 training areas across the Russian federation. There will be a significant number of tactical level exercises with troops relocating from their bases to the training areas. The amount of ground forces combat units involved can reach up to 120 000 soldiers.
The only exception to this rule are the units that participated in the Zapad2017 exercise, these units will be inspected by the respective unit commanders and t…

Steel quartet: the Russian tank programs

The Russian military modernization program has two superstars that have been grabbing the headlines, the T-50 Pak-Fa 5th generation fighter and the T-14 Armata main battle tank. The Armata has been dubbed as a wonder weapon that will make all other main battle tanks obsolete. The published plan was to phase out all other tracked platforms and gradually replace them with Armata variants. The T-14 Armata was supposed to be produced in great numbers.
The delayed development of the Armata platform has been evident, not only by it’s failure in the Victory Day parade at the Red Square, but also by the fact that the advanced T-72B3 variant has been produced in large numbers and an additional upgrade package has been applied to it in 2016.

In addition to the T-72B3M, two other Russian main battle tank upgrade programs are currently underway and the overall number of the modernized tanks will rise to thousands. It is remarkable that the Russian armed forces are committing to four separate tan…

Russia practices for an Iceland invasion

The Russian Northern Fleet has been very active lately, in addition to the usual landing drills close to the fleets home ports in the Kola peninsula, the fleet has been roaming the Russian northern coast with a landing squadron that carries a mix of marines and Arctic brigade specialists from the Alakurtti military base.
This unit has now made a landing drill at the remote island of Kotelny that sits between the Laptev Sea and the East Siberian Sea. The squadrons last supply point, where the crews and troops were allowed to rest and refit was in Dudinka. The distance from Dudinka to Kotelny is roughly 2000 km. This distance corresponds closely to the distance between the fleets home base in Kola and Iceland. The geography and the size of the islands are also very similar.

It is very important to test these kind of long distance naval operations in advance as the troops and the vehicles on board, must remain combat worthy all the way to the target. And the seas up north can be extr…