Skip to main content

Independent Kurdistan, born to die?


Kurdish Peshmerga
The autonomous Kurdistan Region votes enthusiastically for independence. A perfect world would welcome a new member into the family of nations, but the local powers in the Middle East are preparing to extinguish the flame of freedom before it even has a change to light up properly. Iraq, Turkey and Iran all strongly oppose the creation of a Kurdish state, as they fear that the Kurdish minorities within their borders would seek to follow the lead of the Kurds in Iraq.

While USA and many of the western countries are supportive to the Kurdish cause and have sent both arms and trainers to help the Kurdish Peshmerga’s to fight the Islamic State, it’s doubtful that they are willing to or even able to protect Kurdistan with either sufficient diplomatic pressure or military action.



The Iraqi parliament has ordered the government to seize all border crossings from Kurdistan to Iraq and to the neighboring countries. The Iraqi prime minister ordered the Iraqi security forces to move into the Kurdistan and the region inder government controll to “protect the citizens”.

It’s is very doubtful that the official Iraqi fores are able to secure the Iraqi Kurdistan from the approximately 150000 Peshmergas that have many battle hardened units in their ranks. The Iraqi Army was greatly struggling against ISIS forces in Mosul and in a campaign against the Kurdistan, they would have to operate without any American support.

Iraqi army taking selfies

Turkey has threatened to cut off all oil sales from an independent Kurdistan. And as they seem anticipate the problems with the Iraqi offensive against the Kurds. The Turkish military has also been instructed to move mechanized forces to the Iraqi border and begun conducting air raids against the Kurdistan Workers Party, PKK that operates in the Turkey-Iraq border zone and is designated as a terrorist organization. Iran has deployed it’s elite 65th NOHED Brigade to support the Turkish mechanized force. There are also significant Iran led and funded Shiite militias supporting the Iraqi forces.

Member of the 65th NOHED

With three directions blocked by the hostile military forces the newborn Kurdistan’s supply lines will be severed and the only open route leads to the somewhat friendly Kurdish SDF forces in Syria. While these forces have significant combat value, they are tied to fighting the ISIS and blocking the Syrian army backed by Russia. The western military forces in Iraq and Syria are hardly a deterrent to the combined Iraqi, Turkish, Iranian and Syrian forces that are backed by the Russian expeditionary force in Syria.


The Kurdistan may be born from a democratic and peaceful referendum, but it will most likely have to fight hard for it’s right to exists. Without significant help from the United States the outlook for the new state looks grim. 

On the other hand a direct military confrontation between Turkey and USA would spell the end of  the NATO as we know it. As I've predicted over a year ago and that could have even further reaching consequences than a major war in the Middle East.
Labels:

Comments

  1. quyen2May 30, 2019 at 11:19 AM

    Nice post! This is a very nice that I will definitively come back to more times this year! Thanks for informative post.jogos friv gratis 2019
    Jogos 2019
    jogos friv

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Russian Tanks 2022: Thicker and Blinder

  Since the all out invasion of Ukraine the Russian army has lost at least 1700 tanks. This has caused the Russian army some supply problems, when they are re-forming their mauled units. Fighting has also revealed the need for upgrades on most of the Russian tank designs. The most obvious issues with the existing Russian tank fleet are the insufficient armor protection, the lack of reverse mobility and the vulnerability of the automatic loaders and their ammunition carousels. Although the last one has gifted us the sport of Turret Throwing. T-72B obr 2022 tanks Very little can be done for the mobility with the limitations of the existing transmissions and the autoloaders can’t really be replaced with better designs or human loaders either. The armor part on the other hand can be improved during the activation and refurbishment of the deep stored Soviet-era tanks. The first new design that appeared in the battlefield was an upgraded T-72B3 with additional armo,r mimicking the T-90M layo
1 comment
Read more

Quick guide to identifying the Russian tanks Part 1: Updated Dec. 2021

  As most of the western nations have reduced their inventories to a few or mostly one type of main battle tank model in their active inventories, the myriad of tank platforms and distinct versions employed by the Russian armed forces may feel overwhelming. Here is a quick guide to identifying Russian MBTs. When you come across an image (or the actual thing), follow the steps to identify it properly. Updated 15.12.2021: T-90 modifications Family of the tank Russian Armed Forces currently operates, or at least storage, the following tank platforms/families: -            T-55 (<2000 in storage) -            T-62 (2000 in storage) -            T-64 (2000 in storage) -            T-72 (2000 active duty, 8000 in storage) -            T-80 (2000 active duty, 5000 in storage) -            T-90 (350 active duty, 600  in storage) -            T-14 (20 in field testing) So how can you identify what type of a tank are you looking at? There are two features that can be used to distinguishing th
77 comments
Read more

Russian Spring offensive 2023: Kyiv Take Two

Russian T-80U tanks stuck and abandoned in Ukraine in spring 2022   The spectacular Ukrainian victories during the 2022 forced the Russian army to the defensive. With the Russian retreat from Kharkiv and the areas north of the river Dnipro in Kherson, the focus of the fighting has returned to the Donbass. The Russian forces, with Wagner mercenaries and penal battalions doing the bulk of the fighting and dying, are trying to take Bakhmut in a battle that invokes parallels to the meat grinders of the Great war. The Ukrainian armed forces on the other hand are slowly making progress towards Kreminna. Despite the continuous rumors about a new massive round of mobilizations, the Russian army cannot sustain the present level of attrition indefinitely. By throwing enough men and material against the prepared Ukrainian positions manned by experienced and highly motivated defenders, Russians may be able to gain some localized breakthroughs. But even if the Russian mechanized forces are able to
3 comments
Read more