Skip to main content

Coup could lead to a Russo-Turkish alliance

Coup could lead to a Russo-Turkish alliance

Coup attempt in Turkey dominated the headlines over the weekend. President Erdogans AK-party defeated the coup with well-rehearsed police operations and rapid mobilization of the rank and file members of the party.
As was to be expected Erdogan began rapid purges in the military. What surprised some western observers was the speed and ferocity of the purges as they spread from the actual coup participants to the police and justice system.
As of now over 2000 judges, 6000 soldiers, 100 generals and 15000 policemen have been either detained or sacked. Erdogan is conducting an all-out purge in the nation. The end result will be an extremely authoritarian Turkey that will have ever stricter Islamic justice. These purges combined with the probable introduction of the death penalty will spell an end to the Turkeys bid for EU membership.
Erdogan has also clearly stated that he will not seek support from his NATO allies nor USA. His impossible demands towards the Obama administration and besieging of the US forces in Incirlik airbase are clear indications that Turkey will alienate itself from the west. In the light of the coming Islamic influences and authoritarian regime will inevitably cause the breakdown of the NATO-Turkey relationship.
Turkey is not content on standing alone, as Erdogan has expressed clear intentions to forge closer ties with Putins authoritarian regime. The two leaders have common interests in Syria and both seek to fortify their power. Immediately after the coup attempt, Putins ideological idol Alexandr Dugin visited Turkey and met with several AK-party ministers. Putin is also going to visit Erdogan on August.
If Russia and Turkey manage to find enough common ground to form an alliance or at the very least non-aggression pact, it could spell disaster to those nations that currently are under pressure. Most obvious are Georgia, that Russia partly occupies and the Kurds that are under constant assault by the Erdogan regime.
Security threats may spread a lot further than that. By allying with Turkey, Russia gains several advantages. It will no longer have to worry about NATO on its southern flank. This will allow Russia to move from 4 to 6 motorized infantry brigades from the southern regions into other theaters of operation. Russo-Turkish alliance would also de-facto rule the black sea, allowing Russia to operate against Ukraine more freely.
Turkey straying away from the NATO would be a major crisis for the alliance. It would also strip away one of the largest military forces from the alliance. These losses combined with the sluggish decision making in the western democracies would leave to a lengthened window of opportunity for Russian military operations against Ukraine or NATO members like Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Naturally also neutral countries like Finland and Sweden are at risk.
One additional concern are the 3.1 million refugees and migrants in Turkey. Russia experimented with hybrid warfare against Finland last fall. Russia forced Finland to sign a new bilateral border agreement after Finland received large numbers of illegal immigrants from Russia that applied for asylum. We could see Russia and Turkey destabilizing Europe with a new wave of mass migration. This would further tie down the miniscule NATO forces present in the Western Europe.
USA is heading divided into a heated presidential election and Olympic Games are starting in Rio (Russia invaded Georgia during Olympics.) There is no shortage of opportunities if the Russian leadership is looking to rebuild its former glory by arms or subterfuge.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Quick guide to identifying the Russian tanks Part 1: main platforms and T-72 variants

As most of the western nations have reduced their inventories to a few or mostly one type of main battle tank model in their active inventories, the myriad of tank platforms and distinct versions employed by the Russian armed forces may feel overwhelming. Here is a quick guide to identifying Russian MBTs. When you come across an image (or the actual thing), follow the steps to identify it properly. Family of the tank Russian Armed Forces currently operates, or at least storage, the following tank platforms/families: -           T-55 (<2000 in storage) -           T-62 (2000 in storage) -           T-64 (2000 in storage) -           T-72 (2000 active duty, 8000 in storage) -           T-80 (2000 active duty, 5000 in storage) -           T-90 (350 active duty, 600  in storage) -           T-14 (20 in field testing) So how can you identify what type of a tank are you looking at? There are two features that can be used to distingu
4 comments
Read more

The Hammer and the Sickle - Potential Russian Pincer-Offensive

For the past weeks the social media has been filled with sightings of Russian troops moving towards the regions bordering Ukraine. The buildup was initially called an exercise, but in the most recent press releases Kremlin has been rather clear that the troops have been deployed there as an operational deployment, if Russia feels a need to act upon any real or imaginary escalation in Donbass. The troops will stay in the region as long as President Putin sees it necessary. Russia Serna-Class landing crafts of the Caspian flotilla The initial buildup was focused on occupied Crimea that has so far received an additional VDV airborne regiment, multiple mechanized battalion tactical groups and heavy artillery units equipped with at least the enormous 240mm 2S4 Tulpan mortars.  Additional trains and convoys have been spotted in Rostov, Krasnodar and Voronezh regions. The Russian controlled Belarusian military has also been alerted and multiple, very Russian looking units are operating in the
2 comments
Read more

Russian Battalion Tactical Group southbound from Saint Petersburg

  A social media video of a Russian train loaded with military vehicles surfaced 20.8.2020. The video was supposedly filmed south of Saint Petersburg. While videos of Russian convoys and trains laden with tanks are not rare, there are some interesting features in this one. It seems to feature a fully functional Russian battalion tactical group. The maneuver unit is clearly based around a motorized rifle battalion that is equipped with the venerable MT-LB tracked armored personnel carriers. In the Russian system a Motorized Rifle unit can be classified as either mechanized or motorized in the west depending on the set of vehicles it is equipped with. This battalion has at least 35 baseline MT-LBs, which is consistent with the 3 vehicles per platoon and 3 platoons + ATGM-section per company structure that is typical with the battalions of the motorized rifle brigades.   The battalion also has its integral command and communications assets in the form of two R-149 unified command
5 comments
Read more