Vantage Point North

Maskirovka buildup by Russia 31st Air Assault Brigade has brand new BMD-4M IFVs. Exactly a year ago I wrote about the Russian  Maskirovka mobilizations  that are also known as “snap drills” or “readiness inspections”. Some of these drills have been massive and enough troops were set in motion, that the forces could’ve invaded a small nation. While the snap drills of various units of the Russian Armed Forces and the Russian National Guard have continued, the scale has been smaller. Most analysts are looking towards the well published Zapad 2017 exercise as the next possible window for a Russian aggression. However there is an ongoing, slow and creeping, buildup at the western border of Russia. Several combat units have been enlarged during the recent intakes of new recruits and conscripts. More importantly troops move around long distances in seemingly scheduled exercises, which are announced a day or few hours before they commence. These allow Russia to ...

Russian military reform: Command and Communications R-149MA1 Anyone who has followed the military and security affairs during the last decade knows that Russia is investing heavily on the modernization of its armed forces. While the flagship equipment projects such as the T-14 Armata main battle tank and the PAK-FA 5th generation fighter have grabbed the headlines, the true revolution has been in the structure of Russian fighting force and the professionalism allowed by the replacement of the conscripts by contract soldiers. Gone are the brigades, the Russian army is now built up from agile battalion tactical groups, aka BTGs. “ A BTG is a motorized rifle or tank battalion of 2–4 companies with attached ATGM, artillery, reconnaissance, engineer, and rear support platoons making a fairly self-sufficient ground combat unit. ” These self-sustaining formations may be grouped together or used to reinforce the heavy mechanized divisions that act as the spearhead of any future of...

Finland: Rushing Intelligence Finnish government presented a bill for the nations first law governing intelligence issues. The government is attempting to rush the law, that requires amending the constitution, as an urgent one. It’s very uncommon to rush constitutional changes in one parliamentary term. To pass, such a law has to be accepted by 5/6 of the parliament. Although Finland was famous for its ability to gather and break Soviet and Russian communications all the way from World War 2 up until the late 1990’s, there hasn’t been a law that would allow either the military or the Suojelupoliisi (Finnish counter-intelligence) to conduct online surveillance or information gathering operations abroad. Finnish signal intelligence working under Lenin’s nose The Finnish Defense Forces have been restricted to traditional signal intelligence on the radio transmissions that reach Finnish territory. These restrictions have severely hampered the Finnish intelligence community...

Countering the Hybrid War — The Finnish Way Army, Police and Border Guard troops co-operating Unidentified troops have taken over several government buildings, an harbor and airports across Finland. Finnish army has alerted it’s available conscripts, mobilized the reserve local battalions and sent them to support police and border guard units engaging the hostile forces. The local authorities have began transitioning into a crisis mode. Luckily all this action belonged to a series of readiness exercises designed to increase the defense readiness and co-operation across the Finnish society. Finland is facing a new reality with rapidly evolving security threats. After the invasion of Crimea, the Russian “Little Green men” and other “hybrid war” actions have become a very real scenarios that the Finnish authorities have to train for.  Finland has actively shifted its defense stance  more towards counter hybrid threats with higher readiness and mobilization speed...

Belorussian cocktail shakes Belorussian innovation, BMP-2 camouflages made from old newspapers. Easy, fast and environmentally friendy Few things in Europe have been as stable as Belarus. It has been a staunch ally of the Putin regime. Belarus and its leader Alexander Lukashenko, have participated in Russian led Eurasian Economic Union and the two nations have tried to establish a supranational confederation. While the nations are closely knit with economic ties the progress on the confederation has been slow. Recently rumors have been circulating that President Lukashenko has been reluctant to relinquish control of his nation. The old collective farm head has after all ruled Belarus with an iron grip since 1994. Up until 2017 the disputes between Belarus and Russia have stayed mostly under the radar. Only some disputes involving the Russian energy giants have received any attention in the international media. Against this backdrop most analysts dealing with Belarus were...

Finland turns to face modern threats Finnish conscripts, with RK-95 assault rifles Finland has traditionally maintained large and capable defense force with one of the largest wartime armies in Europe. Finnish defense is based on conscription and well trained reservists form the bulk of the fighting force. In this traditional defense thinking there has been a clear separation between time of peace and crisis. 2014 Russian invasion of Crimea and Donbass showed that the picture of war has changed. Russia is fielding troops capable of large scale operations with minimal warning and no regard towards international law. And these capabilities have improved during the past two years. Entire armies mobilize in mere hours, when a  snap drill  is called. In peacetime Finnish Defense Force is a training organization that trains combat troops from conscripts passing through the 6–12 month training cycles. At any given time only very few special operations units in ...

West races to counter Russia American M1A2 tanks on gunnery training Hard military power was neglected by the Europe for over 15 years. Many armies converted to crisis response forces and for example the Bundeswehr was neglected. However, following the Russian aggression in Ukraine and increasingly  offensive posture  all along it’s frontiers from the  arctic down to the Mediterranean , many western nations are now rapidly reactivating their readiness. This readiness building seems to be accelerating rapidly. Here is a quick recoup of the latest developments. Sweden, that gave up on territorial defense, reacted to the Russian threat in the Baltic sea by sending troops to the island of  Gotland.  This was followed by  reactivation of RBS-15  anti-ship missiles, that were also positioned to Gotland. Swedish municipalities were ordered to prepare civil defenses for a major war. There is also serious discussion about  reinstating ...